NANOG Internet predictions for 2010
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From: "Bill St.Arnaud" <bill.st.arnaud@canarie.ca>
To: <news@canarie.ca>
Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 12:27:39 -0400
[NANOG is the North American Network Operators Group and involves most of
the engineers and techies who make the Internet actually work - so they have
a unique perspective on future trends and directions. The actual and
predicated growth of video traffic is startling -- BSA]
Hi -
At a content forum and NANOG in June 2006 I led some discussions involving
predictions for what the Internet might look like in 2010. What makes this
so interesting is that so many perspectives highlighted so many potential
futures that others had not considered. When you then discuss the
implications of such varying futures, again with a diverse crowd, you end up
with a lively discussion and, well, some potential futures you may not have
considered. I've tried to list some of these predictions from the Content
Provider crowd and the ISP NANOG crowd here.
Content Provider Predictions for 2010
------------------------------------------------------
Here is the question I put to a group of Content Providers at a content
forum:
"We are sitting around this table in 2010 and we are commenting how
remarkable the last few years have been, specifically that:"
1. Video streaming volume has grown 100 fold
2. Last mile wireless replaced local loop
3. Botnets (DDOS attacks) are still an issue
4. Non-mechanical (i.e. Flash) Drives replaced internal hard drives on
laptops
5. 10% of all cell phones are now video phones
6. We have cell phones that we actually like
7. The U.S. is insignificant traffic wise relative to the rest of the
world
8. Most popular question discussed around the table: 'How do we
operate business in China?'
9. No online privacy. And the gov't watches everything
10. 18-25 demographic is best reached w/ads on the Internet
11. Next Gen 3D on-line Social Networks are so successful
12. No physical network interfaces are needed
13. We will big brother ourselves (video cams 'who scraped my car?')
14. So many special purpose Internet apps - in car google maps, live
traffic updates, etc.
15. So much of our personal information is on the net
16. Video IM emerged as a dominant app
17. P2P will emerge for non-pirated videos - DRM in place and embraced
18. Voice calls are free, bundled with other things
[some additional notable predictions from this group, but did not =
receive
simple majority validation] IPTV replaces cable TV IPv6 is adopted =
Massive
Internet Collapse - Metcalfe regurgitates his column Flexible screen
deployment SPAM is no longer a problem in 2010 Windows embraces =
distributed
computing Net is not Neutral Powerline Broadband emerges FTTH massive
deployment
Internet Service Providers Predictions for 2010
------------------------------------------------------------------
We didn't get to do this at the Peering BOF at NANOG, but I did some =
table
discussions outside in the hallways. There there was no voting so I am
listing a subset of the predictions that seemed to resonate among a =
couple
dozen or so folks at the hallway tables where question was discussed:
"We are sitting around this table in 2010 at NANOG and we are commenting =
how
remarkable the last few years have been, specifically that:"
1. We have 10G network interface(s) on laptops (I assumed wired, but
someone else might have been thinking wireless)
2. $5/mbps is the common/standard price of transit (other prediction
was $30/mbps)
3. Internet traffic is now so heavily localized (as in 75% of
telephone calls are across town type of thing but for the Internet)
4. Ad revenue will cover the cost/or subsidize significantly of DSL
5. 90% of Internet bits will be video traffic
6. VoIP traffic exceeds the PSTN traffic
7. Private networks predominantly migrate to overlays over the Internet
8. Wireless Internet Service Providers (WISPs) are serious competitive
threat to DSL and Cable Internet
9. Sprint is bought by Time Warner
10. Cable companies form cabal & hookup with Sprint or Level 3
11. Government passes Net Neutrality Law of some flavor
12. Earthlink successfully reinvents themselves as Wireless Metro
player in Response to ATT and Verizon
13. 40% paid or subscription as opposed to Content Click Ads. Like
Cable Company channel packages, folks will flock to subscriptions for
Internet Content packages.
14. RIAA proposes surcharge on network access (like Canada tax on blank
CDs)
15. NetFlix conversion to Internet delivery of movies to Tivo or PC,
or open source set top box
16. ISPs will be in pain
17. Last mile (fiber, wireless, .) in metro will be funded by municipal
bonds
18. Death of TV ads, Death of broadcast TV, Tivo & Tivo like
appliances all use the Internet with emergence of targeted ads based on
demographic profiles of viewer
19. Google in charge of 20% of ALL ads (TV, Radio, Billboards, .)
20. Ubiquitous wifi in every metro with wifi roaming agreements
21. Congestion issues drive selective customer acceptance of partial
transit offerings
22. IPTV fully embraced by cable cos - VOD - no need for VDR and ala
carte video services replace analog frequency
23. Near simultaneous release of movies to the theaters, DVDs for the
home, PPV, and Internet download to meet needs of different =
demographics.
(Some get dressed up for theater, others have kids and can't leave home,
others wantto watch on the flight to Tokyo - all watch the new release =
movie
at about the same time)
Video Peering
--------------------
For what it is worth, some of this resonates with the Peering BOF Video
Peering discussion. With YouTube pushing 20Gbps after only one year in
existance, and with the 30+ companies that often chase a high profile =
market
such as theirs, we have a potential additional Internet load approaching
600Gbps! YouTube at the BOF said that their traffic is growing at about =
20%
per month, so it may be reasonable to expect their traffic to double a
couple times over the next year. Even if you discount the competitors
traffic flows, video still appears as a
*massive* traffic volume coming into the Peering Ecosystem over the next
bunch of months.
And yes, they are willing to peer the traffic for free so you eyeball
networks and they (YouTube) don't have to pay transit fees on the =
traffic.
Bill
//------------------------------------------------
// William B. Norton
-------------------------------------
Bill.St.Arnaud@canarie.ca
www.canarie.ca/~bstarn
skype: pocketpro
SkypeIn: +1 614 441-9603
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