Predicting MIMO by watching the standards process

In planning products or equipment purchase, one way to predict the short-term future is to watch or, better, participate in the standards process.

For example, let us consider the next Wi-Fi generation. The next Wi-Fi generation will use a technique called Multiple-Input, Multiple-Output (MIMO) to achieve transmission speed up to 100 mbps over longer distances than current equipment. You can already purchase MIMO equipment, but it is non-standard, and will not interoperate with standard equipment when it becomes available in 2007 or so.

I am writing this in October 2005, so am making a prediction for the coming two years. If you were considering a Wi-Fi deployment, you might decide to wait until 2007. The prediction is based on the progress of the IEEE 802.11n working group which is defining the MIMO standard.

This table shows the past and predicted progress of the standardization process:

2001 Initial discussions
August 2003 First pre-standard chips
September 2003 First MIMO working group meeting
December 2004 36 proposals submitted
January 2005 Weeded down to 4 proposals
November 2005 Final 3 groups expected to iron out their differences
March 2006 Balloting to approve standard begins
December 2006 Final approval
2006 WiFi Alliance interoperability testing
2007 Standards based 802.11n products ship

This note is based on the article Where's MIMO?.

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