Larry Press, CIS Department, California State
University, Dominguez Hills, lpress@isi.edu
Seymour Goodman, Departments of International
Affairs and Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology
goodman@cc.gatech.edu
Tim Kelly, International Telecommunication Union, tim.kelly@itu.int
Michael Minges, International Telecommunication
Union, michael.minges@itu.int
The authors conducted a study of
the state of the Internet and telecommunication in Nepal during January, 2000
(ITU, 2000). Part of our charge was to
recommend electronic commerce projects that would generate hard currency and
increase social and geographic equity and rural employment. We present background on Nepal, a statement
of our charge, ecommerce alternatives and our conclusions.
The Internet has had an uphill
struggle in Nepal. A thriving Internet
requires complementary telecommunication
infrastructure, trained technicians, demanding users, and networking and
end user equipment, but these are not abundant in Nepal.
Nepal is between China and
India, and has a population of 22 million.
Nepalese life expectancy is 55.6 years, adult literacy is 38.7% and per
capita annual income is 1,186 US dollars (UNDP, 1998). The United Nations Development Programme
computes a national human development index as a function of economic
productivity, health care and education in a nation, and Nepal ranked 144th
out of 174 countries 1999 (UNDP, 1999).
The
situation is exacerbated by heterogeneity within the nation. For example, average life expectancy was
55.8 years in 1996, but it was only 36 years in the Mugu District and 67 in
Kathmandu, the capital. (The standard
deviation in life expectancy among the 75 districts was 6.2 years). Literacy varies from nearly 90% among the
Marwari ethnic group to less than 15% among the Dusadh and Chamar. Brahmins have a life expectancy
of 61 years versus 49 years for Muslims, and Brahmin adult literacy is 58%
versus 22% among Muslims. Only 15% of
homes have electricity in spite of Nepal being an exporter of electric power.
Telephone infrastructure is
poor, and concentrated in and around Kathmandu, the capital city. Nepal has a teledensity of just over one
line per 100 inhabitants; and there are more than 260,000 on the waiting
list. Around two-thirds of the
telephones are in the Kathmandu valley which accounts for less than 3 per
cent of the population. Kathmandu has a
teledensity of 18.2 lines per 100 inhabitants compared with 1.07 in the country
as a whole and 0.06 in rural areas (ITU Database, 1999). Twelve of the 75 districts have no direct
service, and only 1,535 of the 3,996 Village Development Councils have
telephone access.
The Nepalese phone company is
state-owned, though there are privatization plans. A tender is planned for domestic fixed wireless connectivity and
VSAT licenses are available to ISPs and others; however, as in many developing
nations, there is ambivalence about privatization and open competition.[1] Tender schedules have slipped, and the
government and telephone company are concerned about the possible loss of
revenue.
The Nepalese Internet got off to
a later start than most developing nations, with initial UUCP connectivity in
1994, the licensing of ISPs in 1997, and VSAT licenses in 1999. Today there are nine operating ISPs with
around 9,000 accounts. Roughly 30% of
these are commercial, but there are fewer than 100 leased lines and fixed
wireless connections, and many accounts are UUCP email only. Activity is concentrated in Kathmandu. Nepal's late start with the Internet has
left it with relatively little business activity. A survey of tourism and export related companies showed only 49%
of the companies had email addresses and many fewer Web pages (ITU, 2000). Looking at the Web sites that do exist, one
sees further evidence of Nepal's late start on the Internet. They are first generation Web sites --
small, static "electronic brochures."
Our study was conducted by the
International Telecommunication Union in cooperation with the Nepalese National
Planning Commission. One of the
Planning Commission charges was to identify projects to facilitate electronic commerce. While the government of a developing nation
should investigate and invest in ecommerce, it must do so in the context of its
own goals and situation. In a developed
nation, ecommerce might be viewed as a means to increased industrial
productivity. While this is important
everywhere, a developing nation might be more concerned with stemming
population flight from rural to urban areas by increasing village productivity
to the point where it affords two rather than one meal per day and providing
access to news, entertainment, and education.
We considered the Nepalese goals of increased social and geographic
equity and rural employment along with the desire to generate hard currency
profits.
Like the proverbial blind men
and the elephant, there are many ways to define and categorize ecommerce. Rather than attempt a single, orthogonal
taxonomy, we will look at the ecommerce “elephant” in several, overlapping
ways, discussing information products, electronic markets, vertical industry
portals, extranets, business-consumer enterprises, and ecommerce involving
government.
Information products are unique
in that selection, transaction, payment and fulfillment may be completed
electronically without involving physical infrastructure for warehousing and
delivery. Information products would
seem attractive in a developing nation like Nepal, where roads, transport, post
and delivery facilities are poor. On
the other hand, the banking and legal system must provide for electronic
payment, and, of course electrical and telecommunication infrastructure must be
available and reliable.
In considering information
products for export, one should ask what is uniquely Nepalese. What news, literature, music, images, and
video content would have a market? Who would be the audience? Nepalese expatriates? English and Hindi speaking Indians? Buddhists?
An ecommerce presence could perhaps evolve out of a government sponsored
Nepalese culture site on the Internet.
Software and data entry are
another form of information product.
This can take several forms (Press, 1991, Press, 1993), including
transcription and data entry, call center operation, animation and drawing, Web
hosting and design, contract programming (on site or remote), and software
packages. Of course the Internet merely
enables or facilitates such activity – management, marketing and human capital
are at its core. The markets for this
sort of service are very competitive and crowded, making differentiation
difficult. One strategy is to focus
effort on areas of current competence.
For example, Chilean banking and forestry software was successfully
exported because they had developed excellent local systems. Nepal may have expertise in systems for
electrical power generation and distribution since they have extensive hydroelectric
capacity and are a power exporter.
There would also a domestic
market for information products if there were infrastructure in place to
deliver them. Information products
involving credit, education, news, health, entertainment, and personal
communication can be sold in rural and in urban areas if people have access to
the Internet at home, work, school or in a telecenter.
Funds transfer is another
information service. The Internet is
increasingly used by expatriates in developed nations to maintain contact with
each other and with their families.
Expatriates often send funds home, and a trustworthy mechanism for
electronic funds transfer should be provided.
The same service is needed to support export business. This should not be seen as a profit
opportunity for the government, but as a method of getting hard currency and
enhancing quality of life.[2]
Electronic markets are well
suited to homogeneous, fungible commodities, several of which come to mind in
the Nepalese context: electric power,
agricultural inputs, products, and transportation, and handicraft raw
materials. Nepal has knowledge of
energy markets because of its hydroelectric power industry. We are seeing the emergence of electronic
markets for energy, for example, Altranet, www.altranet.com,
in developed nations today, and Forrester Research predicts that 17% of US
electricity will be traded online by 2004 (Kafka, et al, 2000). Is there a place for an international
electronic market for energy in the region?
Or, more generically, how can the Internet be used in service of the
region’s energy suppliers?
Perhaps electronic markets could
play a role in rural agriculture by lowering the cost of seed and fertilizer,
helping farmers find the best prices for their goods, and finding cheap,
reliable transportation to market. An
early study along these lines in Pondicherry, India, found that information about something as mundane as bus
schedules and the availability of space on a bus can be quite valuable in the
rural economy (Press, 1999a). One can
imagine a Nepalese “Federal Express” which aggregates goods for transportation,
eliminating the need of a farmer to travel with his or her produce to market.
Handicrafts are also significant
in Nepal’s rural economy, employing an estimated 300,000 people throughout the
country (Shahi and Kachhipati, 1999).
In urban areas, people usually work full time in handicrafts, whereas it
is typically a subsidiary occupation in rural areas. While the contribution of handicraft exports to GDP is only .89
percent (1996/7), it has grown steadily from .08 percent in 1986/7, and
handicrafts accounted for 4.17 percent of exports in 1996/7. Might electronic markets for handicraft raw
materials and products increase efficiency?
As with electric power, these markets could serve the entire region, not
only Nepal.
The tourism and trekking
industry is a candidate for a vertical portal.
The Web site should be comprehensive, providing for selection of transportation
to and within Nepal, accommodations, guides, etc. The site would provide descriptions, search and selection tools,
and links to competing companies in each of these areas, necessitating the
participation of representatives of several industries. As with most ecommerce, the Web site would be
only the tip of the iceberg. Payment
and fulfillment must also be provided for.
Credit cards are the most common payment mechanism for consumer goods on
the Internet today, and a means of accepting credit card payment would be
necessary. Similarly, systems for
international travel, visa and immigration matters, local transportation, and
housing would all have to be integrated.
Electronic marketplaces and
vertical portals are open, hoping to attract all buyers and sellers, but the
Internet is also used to create closed “extranets” to facilitate communication
and cooperation between relatively stable business partners. For example, the handicraft industry
involves raw material producers, individual artisans, producer and craft-based
organizations, marketing and fair-trade organizations, commercial buyers and
importers, government customs and export
regulators, retail outlets, and warehousing and transportation at every
step in the process. Simply connecting the
appropriate people in each of these organizations with email would no doubt
increase production and logistic efficiency.
Providing them with Web sites for querying inventory status, ordering,
scheduling, tracking shipments, etc. would provide still greater returns.
Direct Internet sales to export
customers are difficult because of logistical problems with rapid, reliable
delivery; however, the inefficiencies and markups in the current distribution
channels make direct marketing an attractive goal. For example, a Dhaka full pattern shawl begins with Rs 175 for
yarn and Rs 275 for the producer’s labor, and ultimately sells for Rs 5,250
(Shahi and Kachhipati, 1999). An allo
placemat which sells for Rs 300 begins with Rs 15 for material and 7 for labor.
Note that the bulk of the export markup
is in freight, duty and retail. The Rs
5,250 shawl sells for only Rs 750 domestically and the placemat 48.50.
Direct marketing to consumers
would entail a Web site, and it should be complete and professional, enabling
the consumer to select or design, order, pay for and track delivery of an
item. Timely delivery to customers
would entail warehousing and fulfillment centers in target market areas such as
North America, Europe and Australia.[3] Government cooperation in streamlining
export procedures and lowering duties would also be necessary.
Local and national governments
are also involved in commercial transactions, and the government has an
opportunity to lead by example in this area.
The Internet can be used in the tender and fulfillment process, project
management and reporting, in collections and procedures, etc. These can be both government-business and
government-consumer transactions, and there are many examples to follow, for
example, in local government in India (Press, et al, 1998) or at the national
level in the US or Singapore.
In conducting this exercise for
Nepal, we were struck by the degree to ecommerce considerations in developed
nations were valid in a developing nation.
In all cases, the Web site is just the tip of the iceberg – systems for
site maintenance and fulfillment are critical as is providing comprehensive
one-stop information and the ability to place and pay for orders. Channel conflicts due to disintermediation
are as likely for handicrafts as for automobiles. The opportunity for comprehensive customer relationship
management is available in Nepal as well as California.
We recommended three
projects: a business-consumer site for
marketing Buddhist thangka paintings via the Internet, a series of vertically
focused workshops bringing together members of the Nepalese IT community and
members in industries which may be likely ecommerce candidates, and the
establishment of a village-connectivity pilot project along the lines of those
in Pondicherry (Press, 1999a, Press, 1999b, Dugger, 2000) and Madhya Pradesh (Loyd, 2000) to explore
technology and applications.
Braga, C. A. P.,
Emmanuel F. and Stern, P. A., Developing Countries and Accounting Rates Reform,
A Technological and Regulatory El Niño?, Public Policy for the Private Sector
journal (Viewpoint), World Bank, Washington DC, February 1999, http://www.worldbank.org/html/fpd/notes/173/173braga.pdf.
Dugger, C. W., Connecting Rural India to the World, New
York Times, May 28, 2000.
International
Telecommunication Union database, November 1999.
International Telecommunications Union. Nepal Internet
Case Study. Geneva, to be published in 2000.
Kafka, S. J., Temkin, B. D., Sanders, M. R., Sharrad, J.,
and Brown, T. O, eMarketplaces Boost B2B Trade, Forrester Research,
February, 2000.
Loyd, M., 'Magic Box' a Lifeline to India's Poor Farmers,
South China Morning Post, May 24, 2000, http://www.scmp.com/News/Comment/Article/FullText_asp_ArticleID-20000524052040288.asp.
Press, L., Personal Computers and the World Software
Market, Communications of the Association for Computing Machinery,
February, 1991. Reprinted in Schellenberg, Kathryn, "Computers in
Society," 4th Ed., Dushkin Publishing Group, Guilford, CT, 1991.
Press, L., Software Export from Developing Nations,"
IEEE Computer, December, 1993.
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Mittal, A., The Role of State Government in Developing India's Internet,
OnTheInternet, pp 35-37, November/December, 1998, http://som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress/devnat/nations/india/otigovt.htm.
Press, L., A Client-Centered Networking Project in
Rural India, OnTheInternet, pp 36-38, January/February, 1999(a), som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress/devnat/nations/india/pondyoti.htm.
Press, L., Connecting Villages, OnTheInternet, Vol. 5, No.
4, July/August, 1999 (b), pp 32-37, http://som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress/articles/villages.htm
Shahi, S. and Kachhipati, C. P., Collective
Marketing: The Case of Handicraft in
Nepal, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu,
1999.
United Nations
Development Programme, Nepal Human
Development Report, 1998, http://www.undp.org.np/keydoc/nhdr98/contents.html.
United Nations
Development Programme, Human
Development Report, 1999, http://www.undp.org/hdro/report.html.
[1] See Braga, 1999 for a discussion of this problem in developing nations.
[2] The value of increased
connectivity with the Nepalese expatriate community should also be considered
in assessing the decision to regulate Internet telephony.
[3] The numbers of Internet
users in India and China growing rapidly, and more direct shipment may be
feasible for reaching those markets.